Bitcoin (BTC) Potential September Decline: Insights from Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests a significant market correction for Bitcoin (BTC) in the upcoming month, drawing from historical September trends.

Cowen shares with his social media audience of 762,500 on platform X his anticipation of a potential over 16% drop in Bitcoin's value during September.

"There's a notable possibility of witnessing BTC at $23,000 in September."

Source: Benjamin Cowen/X

Analyzing the trader's chart, Cowen's analysis suggests a Bitcoin drop to the $23,000 price range, potentially for support retesting.

As of now, Bitcoin trades at $27,427, exhibiting a more than 5% increase in the last 24 hours.

Cowen also presents a chart indicating September's historically bearish performance concerning Bitcoin's average returns. He underscores that September 2019, a pre-halving year, recorded substantial losses, and this year's September aligns with another pre-halving period.

"Cowen points out, 'The average September return for BTC is -7%. In 2019 (the last pre-halving year), BTC saw a decline of 13.91%.'"

Source: Benjamin Cowen/X

Cowen clarifies that while he anticipates a September decline for Bitcoin, it doesn't negate the possibility of price volatility. He envisions a scenario where Bitcoin experiences fluctuations and potentially records lower highs within the overall downward trend, reminiscent of September 2019's price movement.

He explains, "It's important to note that the journey involves a stochastic process. In 2019, there was an initial upward movement in September, only to reverse towards the end. Therefore, the chance of observing a lower high (a rejection off the 20-week SMA or 21-week EMA, for instance) before reaching the $23,000 mark remains."

Source: Benjamin Cowen/X

Aug 31, 2023

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