Bitcoin: Could this BTC winter be a very long winter?

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Bitcoin reviews

  • BTC held by exchanges at the all-year low
  • MVRV ratio and weighted sentiment increased

Elon Musk recently posted a tweet about Bitcoin [BTC] in which he mentioned that “BTC will be successful, but it could be a long winter.” 


According to the aforementioned tweet, the latest Bitcoin price action is not very promising, as the king coin has not had any major gains. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of BTC has dropped by more than 14% in the past seven days, and at the time of writing, it is trading at $16,774.72 with a market capitalization of over $321.9 billion. 

Wenry, an analyst and author at CryptoQuant, recently published an analysis that revealed some interesting facts about Bitcoin.  

Will we see a BTC bull soon?

In the analysis, Wenry mentioned that the amount of BTC held by exchanges is at an all-time low and is close to the level of January 2018. As trading holdings decrease, selling pressure usually weakens. 

This time, however, market distrust sees growth, which may have a different effect. Therefore, the current scenario, coupled with the recent bankruptcy of FTX, makes it difficult to predict exactly where BTC will go.

Source: CryptoQuant

While the weekly chart is mostly red, at the time of this writing, BTC price has increased by more than 4% in the past 24 hours. This has given investors some hope of further upside in the coming days.

Several on-chain indices are also bullish. For example, BTC's market to real value (MVRV) ratio has recorded a late bull run. This can be seen as a positive sign. After witnessing a drop, BTC volume has increased over the past two days.

Additionally, BTC weighting sentiment has also increased, indicating the coin's growing popularity in the crypto community. Not only this, but CryptoQuant data also reveals that BTC's Puell Multiple is colored green. This could be a sign that the price is undervalued, further increasing the chances of a move north.

Source: Feelings

The market is in a downtrend

A look at the daily chart of BTC shows that the bulls are struggling to beat the bears as the bears have a huge advantage in the market. The data from the EMA tape shows that the 20-day EMA is much lower than the 55-day EMA. This reflects a supplier advantage.

The spotting of the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) also shows a bearish signal. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is significantly below neutral, which could limit Bitcoin's upside.

Source: TradingView


Nov 15, 2022

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