Top Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin's Potential Drop: Insights on 'Secondary Scare

Benjamin Cowen, a leading crypto analyst, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential for further decline after witnessing a 15% drop from its peak in 2023

Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen informed his vast YouTube audience of 785,000 about the recurring crypto downturn pattern. He links this trend to the S&P 500 stock index, which typically corrects in August or September of the US pre-election year. Pointing to 2023, Cowen highlights the ongoing S&P correction, which has dipped over 5% since August's commencement.

Drawing from past "secondary scare" instances, Bitcoin has experienced falls ranging from 39% to a staggering 83%. Cowen cites:

  • A 61% drop in 2019 after Bitcoin fell below the 20-week moving average.
  • A near 40% decline in 2015.
  • An 82.5% plunge in 2011.

In each case, the S&P witnessed a Q3 drop in the pre-halving, pre-election year, causing a Bitcoin downtrend. These patterns have resulted in Bitcoin drops of approximately 80%, 40%, and 60%.

Considering historical data, Cowen presents three potential scenarios for Bitcoin's trajectory:

  1. A 40% fall aligning with 2015, which would position Bitcoin at $17,500.
  2. A 61% decline resembling 2019's drop, resulting in a value around $11,400.
  3. An unlikely 80% drop, which he deems improbable.

As of now, Bitcoin's market value stands at $26,423.


Aug 19, 2023

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