Bitcoin ETF 2024 Launch: Bloomberg Experts Predict 75% Probability

Bloomberg analysts suggest a strong likelihood of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) launching by year-end, with a high level of certainty expected by the close of 2024.

Bloomberg ETF experts, James Seyffart, and Eric Balchunas, project a 75% likelihood of a spot market Bitcoin (BTC) ETF launch by the close of 2023, with a 95% probability for a launch by the end of the following year.

Balchunas attributes the raised odds to Grayscale's legal victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The recent federal court ruling mandates the SEC to reconsider Grayscale's BTC ETF application, citing the necessity to prevent arbitrariness.

Balchunas states, "James Seyffart and I have increased the odds to 75% for a spot Bitcoin ETF launch this year (95% by the end of '24). The unanimous and decisive ruling exceeded expectations, leaving the SEC with minimal leeway."

Seyffart echoes this sentiment, foreseeing a spot market ETF built around the leading crypto asset as practically assured for 2024. "Eric [Balchunas] and I have moved to a 75% likelihood for a 2023 spot Bitcoin ETF launch, and we consider it nearly certain that one will be launched by the conclusion of 2024."

Grayscale's initial lawsuit, filed in June 2022, accused the SEC of discriminatory rejection of their BTC ETF application.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $27,166, reflecting a 1.1% decrease in the last 24 hours.

Aug 31, 2023

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