Portfolio of FTX and Alameda Research – Which projects should investors be careful with?
The pain FTX has inflicted on the entire crypto industry in the past few days can be even more widespread considering the business and investment panorama that FTX has built over the past three years.
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The FTX crisis entered a new phase on November 10, 2022, it is certain that what happened within the past 24 hours will almost certainly be remembered forever in money history. encryption because the loss it has brought to the industry as a whole has been catastrophic and rapid.
However, the impact of the FTX crash could exceed the scale of LUNA/UST or Three Arrows Capital (3AC) in the long run because of the traditional and crypto companies involved in the partnership with FTX and Alameda. Research through direct investment or lending. Since FTX has collapsed, it is very likely that these institutions are facing liquidation of the exchange's assets and expanding the "flame" niche in the industry.
According to an analysis by Huobi Research, at the project level, it is mainly related to the Layer blockchains and DEX exchanges strongly supported by FTX including Solana (SOL), Fantom (FTM), and Serum (SRM), etc. In the descriptive statistics table below, Huobi Research has detailed the projects directly affected by FTX.
Tokens investors should be "cautious"
On the other hand, based on the analysis on Alameda Research's portfolio, the tokens currently being custodians of the fund's holdings are allocated in ascending value as follows: BIT, SUSHI, FTT, SRM, LDO, MATIC, RNDR, etc. These tokens investors should pay attention to in the near future because Alameda Research's ownership rate for them is quite high in the portfolio, they can prioritize selling them at any time to compensate. compensate for the loss suffered.
● BIT : It has not been confirmed yet whether FTX will break its promise to sell BIT in the future, as FTX has been quite controversial about this event with BitDAO in the context of BitDAO itself threatening to sell 3.36 million FTT if Alameda does not show proof of BIT holding. Still, caution should be taken as BIT already accounts for 23% of the total value in Alameda wallets and the current market conditions do not seem to be believable enough for any action by FTX.
● SUSHI : Alameda has a total of 3.4 million xSUSHI and is eligible to withdraw 4.8 million SUSHI. Even so, the case of SUSHI is relatively safe because the token is trading at a price too low to be liquidated in large quantities.
● MATIC and RNDR : The difference between these two tokens is their relatively high level of liquidity and they are not assets of the Solana ecosystem, so this could potentially become an ideal priority target for Alameda sold to cover the shortfall in cash flow. Although RNDR price has dropped by 26% and 20% for MATIC, if there is big selling pressure from Alameda, both projects will surely face many ups and downs.
● FTT : FTX's "baby" token. There have been many rumors that Alameda used a huge amount of FTT from FTX as collateral. But information regarding the loans behind the curtain is still unknown, details of the liquidation are currently unclear. However, if you consider the issue of collateral, FTT is considered as Alameda's last line of defense.
● SRM : One of the projects in the "incubator" of Alameda and FTX. The current SRM price is a lot lower than the issue price like other protocols on Solana and TVL on Serum has decreased by 20-30% in 24 hours. Despite the bad reaction, it does not mean that the SRM will be kept in the Alameda wallet.
● SOL : This is considered the main character in the chaotic context at the moment. SOL has the risk of liquidating a huge amount of collateral in its ecosystem, and of course SOL is not the main target Alameda needs to “save”, that position belongs to FTT. The proof is that the Solana system is collapsing completely with no signs of recovery as of the time of writing.
On the other hand, SOL's rapid growth in 2021 was all single-handedly created by FTX and Alameda, with the collapse of FTX, SOL was like a "headless snake". The unstake event of nearly 1 billion USD in SOL on the afternoon of November 10, although the impact was minimized by the Solana Foundation, but that was enough to make investors panic and lose confidence in SOL.
Next are the two blockchains that are expected to create a new breeze for the market in the near future, receiving a lot of attention from the community, Aptos and Sui, both with investment participation from FTX Ventures at the beginning of the year. 2022 for funding rounds for both $150 million and $300 million respectively.
Finally, for projects where Alameda acts as a market maker, equity swap, or projects that are closely linked to the FTT and related assets, such as such as BitDao, MIM, etc. Although these projects do not receive direct investment from FTX, they will certainly be greatly affected by the current situation of FTX, which is mainly driven by correlated assets. and market panic.
Nov 10, 2022